With a new governor inaugurated and a new congressional district about to be created, this will be an active year in Louisiana politics. Here are my predictions for 2024.
Many people believe that Gov. Jeff Landry, well known as a “culture warrior” during his time as state attorney general, will pursue radical conservative policies. However, he has a totally different job now. Governor is a management job. The way the governor’s office is structured, it requires pragmatism to be successful.
Gov. Landry has already demonstrated a pragmatic stance by finding common ground on crime policy with New Orleans Mayor Latoya Cantrell and District Attorney Jason Williams, both Democrats he has been critical of in the past. He has said he will work with Cantrell to end the federal court consent decree on the New Orleans Police Department, and increase the number of state troopers in the city. At a joint press conference with the Williams, Landry said he would request lawyers from the attorney general’s office to help reduce the local prosecution backload.
In his inauguration speech, Landry did mention culture war issues, such as opposition to “educational indoctrination,” and opposition to “climate change” initiatives, which he believes threaten the oil industry. However, these are not pressing issues, so he will not focus on them in his first year. Instead, he will focus on pressing issues such as reducing crime, reducing home insurance rates and rebuilding infrastructure. The state legislature will go along, because new governors always get a honeymoon. One culture war issue is a holdover from the last session, a “constitutional carry” bill allowing concealed weapons without a permit. That bill will become law this session.
The budget will be stable this fiscal year, thanks to a $330 million surplus left over from federal dollars sent to help the state during the pandemic. However, after this year, the state budget is forecast to run a deficit, as a temporary 0.45% sales tax sunsets and falls off the books, and a vehicle sales tax is rededicated from the general fund to a construction sub-fund. At that time, Landry and the legislature will need to make tough choices to either cut funding or seek additional revenue from taxes.
Moving on to federal politics this year, the presidential pick is easy. Louisiana remains a red state and Donald Trump country. Trump will carry the state by close to 60% of the vote and receive its eight votes in the Electoral College, regardless of the outcomes of any of his pending criminal trials.
In looking beyond Republican dominance in statewide politics, the rest of the landscape has improved for Democrats. While the Democrats had a difficult 2023, recent federal court decisions have been in their favor. The federal courts are poised to assist with picking up more legislative seats than the disorganized Louisiana Democratic Party has been able to pick up.
Based on past rulings, it is expected that U.S. District Judge Shelly Dick will rule in favor of the plaintiffs in a civil rights lawsuit alleging the state legislative map violates the Voting Rights Act. Recent rulings by the U.S. Supreme Court are sympathetic to these allegations. When upheld on appeal, the legislature will be forced to reopen the reapportionment process and create a few additional majority Black state legislative districts, favorable to Democrats in future elections.
In a similar Voting Rights Act case already adjudicated by the courts, the legislature has been ordered to draw a second Louisiana Black majority US House district. This would double the number of Black majority districts in the Louisiana U.S. House Delegation, from 1 of 6 to 2 of 6, or one-third. This would be more representative because about 33% of the Louisiana population is Black. The seat will be constructed by carving up the district of Garret Graves, resulting in him losing his seat in Congress.
The new congressional district will be favorable to Democrats, and as an open seat, will draw a large field of candidates. In a year in which no Louisiana incumbents are expected to get any serious challengers, and the race for presidential electors is a foregone conclusion, this race is the top of the ballot race, and will provide most of the political excitement. Given the current thin three seat edge the majority holds in the U.S. House of Representatives, this seat will end up having national implications.
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Opinion: Looking into the crystal ball: Louisiana political predictions for 2024
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With a new governor inaugurated and a new congressional district about to be created, this will be an active year in Louisiana politics. Here are my predictions for 2024.
Many people believe that Gov. Jeff Landry, well known as a “culture warrior” during his time as state attorney general, will pursue radical conservative policies. However, he has a totally different job now. Governor is a management job. The way the governor’s office is structured, it requires pragmatism to be successful.
Gov. Landry has already demonstrated a pragmatic stance by finding common ground on crime policy with New Orleans Mayor Latoya Cantrell and District Attorney Jason Williams, both Democrats he has been critical of in the past. He has said he will work with Cantrell to end the federal court consent decree on the New Orleans Police Department, and increase the number of state troopers in the city. At a joint press conference with the Williams, Landry said he would request lawyers from the attorney general’s office to help reduce the local prosecution backload.
In his inauguration speech, Landry did mention culture war issues, such as opposition to “educational indoctrination,” and opposition to “climate change” initiatives, which he believes threaten the oil industry. However, these are not pressing issues, so he will not focus on them in his first year. Instead, he will focus on pressing issues such as reducing crime, reducing home insurance rates and rebuilding infrastructure. The state legislature will go along, because new governors always get a honeymoon. One culture war issue is a holdover from the last session, a “constitutional carry” bill allowing concealed weapons without a permit. That bill will become law this session.
The budget will be stable this fiscal year, thanks to a $330 million surplus left over from federal dollars sent to help the state during the pandemic. However, after this year, the state budget is forecast to run a deficit, as a temporary 0.45% sales tax sunsets and falls off the books, and a vehicle sales tax is rededicated from the general fund to a construction sub-fund. At that time, Landry and the legislature will need to make tough choices to either cut funding or seek additional revenue from taxes.
Moving on to federal politics this year, the presidential pick is easy. Louisiana remains a red state and Donald Trump country. Trump will carry the state by close to 60% of the vote and receive its eight votes in the Electoral College, regardless of the outcomes of any of his pending criminal trials.
In looking beyond Republican dominance in statewide politics, the rest of the landscape has improved for Democrats. While the Democrats had a difficult 2023, recent federal court decisions have been in their favor. The federal courts are poised to assist with picking up more legislative seats than the disorganized Louisiana Democratic Party has been able to pick up.
Based on past rulings, it is expected that U.S. District Judge Shelly Dick will rule in favor of the plaintiffs in a civil rights lawsuit alleging the state legislative map violates the Voting Rights Act. Recent rulings by the U.S. Supreme Court are sympathetic to these allegations. When upheld on appeal, the legislature will be forced to reopen the reapportionment process and create a few additional majority Black state legislative districts, favorable to Democrats in future elections.
In a similar Voting Rights Act case already adjudicated by the courts, the legislature has been ordered to draw a second Louisiana Black majority US House district. This would double the number of Black majority districts in the Louisiana U.S. House Delegation, from 1 of 6 to 2 of 6, or one-third. This would be more representative because about 33% of the Louisiana population is Black. The seat will be constructed by carving up the district of Garret Graves, resulting in him losing his seat in Congress.
The new congressional district will be favorable to Democrats, and as an open seat, will draw a large field of candidates. In a year in which no Louisiana incumbents are expected to get any serious challengers, and the race for presidential electors is a foregone conclusion, this race is the top of the ballot race, and will provide most of the political excitement. Given the current thin three seat edge the majority holds in the U.S. House of Representatives, this seat will end up having national implications.
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Robert Collins
Robert Collins is a professor of Urban Studies and Public Policy at Dillard, where he holds the Conrad N. Hilton Endowed Professorship. He previously held positions as dean of the College of Arts and Sciences... More by Robert Collins