As we close the book on 2024, it’s time to look back on the predictions I made in my January crystal ball column, and review new developments during the last year.

My first prediction was that Gov. Jeff Landry would be so busy with tax reform and rewriting the constitution, that he would not spend time on culture war issues. This was wrong. Landry pushed his Ten Commandments in schools bill through this session as a cornerstone of his agenda. The law is currently on hold while its constitutionality is litigated in the federal courts. 

Other column predictions did better. I correctly predicted the state law allowing residents to carry concealed hand guns without a permit would finally pass this year, after several unsuccessful attempts in past years. 

The presidential election prediction is always easy in a red state like Louisiana. As expected, Donald Trump carried 60% of the Louisiana vote in the presidential contest and received the state’s eight Electoral College votes.

In congressional politics, I did correctly predict the state legislature would create a second Black-majority district as part of a compromise to end federal litigation, and that the Republican incumbent district sacrificed would belong to Garrett Graves. 

In other redistricting news, I also correctly predicted that U.S. District Judge Shelly Dick would rule in favor of the plaintiffs in a civil rights lawsuit alleging the state legislative map violates the Voting Rights Act, because it has too few Black-majority districts in relation to the percentage of Black voters in the state. This is the first step in a long process of federal litigation.

Now we can review new developments during the last year.  While the governor was not able to convince the legislature to call a constitutional convention, he was successful in getting the majority of his business-friendly tax reform package through the legislature. The new structure lowers corporate taxes and income taxes, and makes up for the shortfall by eliminating many special interest tax breaks, and by raising sales taxes. 

In New Orleans politics, the widely expected indictment of Mayor LaToya Cantrell never came, although her former NOPD bodyguard, Jeffrey Vappie, was indicted for collecting a salary from the taxpayers while not actually on duty, and lying to the FBI. In addition, Randy Farrell, a city contractor with close ties to the mayor, was indicted for fraudulently collecting taxpayer money for building inspections that were never carried out. Cantrell was referred to as “public official one,” an unindicted co-conspirator in both indictments. 

It is unknown if further indictments will come from these investigations, and because a new president usually means a new U.S. attorney, it is possible that any future decisions will be made by the next administration. In the meantime, a cloud continues to hang over city hall, with many career city employees expressing the desire that it is past time for a final indictment decision in these investigations. 

The most significant development in New Orleans city government during the last year has been the 40% drop in the crime rate. Polling data indicates that crime is the number one concern for city voters. However, recent polls show that Cantrell is not benefiting politically from the reduction in crime. Her poll ratings remain very low. Voters give Police Chief Anne Kirkpatrick most of the credit. 

The distractions of criminal investigations of city hall and the mayor leaving the city often to travel to various conferences at taxpayer expense, have hurt her public image. Cantrell has reduced her public events and appears to be quietly coasting through her final months in office. She is term-limited and cannot run for re-election.

Next year is a mayoral election year, and although no candidates have made formal announcements yet, several elected officials have spent time this past year quietly raising money, recruiting campaign staff, and forming campaign committees. Potential mayoral candidates currently being mentioned by political observers include Councilperson-at-Large Helena Moreno, District E Councilperson Oliver Thomas, and District 5 State Senator Royce Duplessis. 

Political observers will remember 2024 for the change in the White House, the drop in crime, city hall public corruption investigations, and changes in the state tax code. Next year will include a Super Bowl, a mayoral election, at least two city hall public corruption trials, and many activities around the 20th anniversary of Hurricane Katrina. 2024 was the preparation year for the coming storm. 

My next column will include my political predictions for 2025. 

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Robert Collins is a professor of Urban Studies and Public Policy at Dillard, where he holds the Conrad N. Hilton Endowed Professorship. He previously held positions as dean of the College of Arts and Sciences...